Optimizing the use of new tools, such as vaccines, may play a crucial role in reaching global targets for tuberculosis (TB) control. Some of the most promising candidate vaccines target adults, although high-coverage mass vaccinations may be logistically more challenging among this population than among children. Vaccine-delivery strategies that target high-risk groups or settings might yield proportionally greater impact than do those that target the general population. We developed an individual-based TB transmission model representing a hypothetical population consisting of people who worked in South African gold mines or lived in associated labor-sending communities. We simulated the implementation of a postinfection adult vaccine with 60% efficacy and a mean effect duration of 10 years. We then compared the impact of a mine-targeted vaccination strategy, in which miners were vaccinated while in the mines, with that of a community-targeted strategy, in which random individuals within the labor-sending communities were vaccinated. Mine-targeted vaccination averted an estimated 0.37 TB cases per vaccine dose compared with 0.25 for community-targeted vaccination, for a relative efficacy of 1.46 (95% range, 1.13-1.91). The added benefit of mine-targeted vaccination primarily reflected the disproportionate demographic burden of TB among the population of adult males as a whole. As novel vaccines for TB are developed, venue-based vaccine delivery that targets high-risk demographic groups may improve both vaccine feasibility and the impact on transmission.

BACKGROUND: The Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) assay offers rapid and accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) but still suffers from imperfect sensitivity. The newer Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra cartridge has shown improved sensitivity in recent field trials, but at the expense of reduced specificity. The clinical implications of switching from the existing Xpert cartridge to the Xpert Ultra cartridge in different populations remain uncertain. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a Markov microsimulation model of hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 individuals undergoing diagnostic sputum evaluation with Xpert for suspected pulmonary TB, in each of 3 emblematic settings: an HIV clinic in South Africa, a public TB center in India, and an adult primary care setting in China. In each setting, we used existing data to project likely diagnostic results, treatment decisions, and ultimate clinical outcomes, assuming use of the standard Xpert versus Xpert Ultra cartridge. Our primary outcomes were the projected number of additional unnecessary treatments generated, the projected number of TB deaths averted, and the projected number of unnecessary treatments generated per TB death averted, if standard Xpert were switched to Xpert Ultra. We also simulated alternative approaches to interpreting positive results of the Ultra cartridge's semi-quantitative trace call. Extensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to evaluate the drivers and generalizability of projected results. In the Indian TB center setting, replacing the standard Xpert cartridge with the Xpert Ultra cartridge was projected to avert 0.5 TB deaths (95% uncertainty range [UR]: 0, 1.3) and generate 18 unnecessary treatments (95% UR: 10, 29) per 1,000 individuals evaluated-resulting in a median ratio of 38 incremental unnecessary treatments added by Ultra per incremental death averted by Ultra compared to outcomes using standard Xpert (95% UR: 12, indefinite upper bound). In the South African HIV care setting-where TB mortality rates are higher and Ultra's improved sensitivity has greater absolute benefit-this ratio improved to 7 unnecessary treatments per TB death averted (95% UR: 2, 43). By contrast, in the Chinese primary care setting, this ratio was much less favorable, at 372 unnecessary treatments per TB death averted (95% UR: 75, indefinite upper bound), although the projected number of unnecessary treatments using Xpert Ultra was lower (with a possibility of no increased overtreatment) when using specificity data only from lower-burden settings. Alternative interpretations of the trace call had little effect on these ratios. Limitations include uncertainty in key parameters (including the clinical implications of false-negative results), the exclusion of transmission effects, and restriction of this analysis to adult pulmonary TB. CONCLUSIONS: Switching from the standard Xpert cartridge to the Xpert Ultra cartridge for diagnosis of adult pulmonary TB may have different consequences in different clinical settings. In settings with high TB and HIV prevalence, Xpert Ultra is likely to offer considerable mortality benefit, whereas in lower-prevalence settings, Xpert Ultra will likely result in considerable overtreatment unless the possibility of higher specificity of Ultra in lower-prevalence settings in confirmed. The ideal use of the Ultra cartridge may therefore involve a more nuanced, setting-specific approach to implementation, with priority given to populations in which the anticipated prevalence of TB (and HIV) is the highest.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models are increasingly used to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases, including "chronic" infections with long generation times. Such models include features that are obscure to most clinicians and decision-makers. METHODS: Using a model of a hypothetical active case-finding intervention for tuberculosis in India as an example, we illustrate the effects on model results of different choices for model structure, input parameters, and calibration process. RESULTS: Using the same underlying data, different transmission models produced different estimates of the projected intervention impact on tuberculosis incidence by 2030 with different corresponding uncertainty ranges. We illustrate the reasons for these differences and present a simple guide for clinicians and decision-makers to evaluate models of infectious diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical models of chronic infectious diseases must be understood to properly inform policy decisions. Improved communication between modelers and consumers is critical if model results are to improve the health of populations.

OBJECTIVES: Secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS), use of solid fuels, and kerosene may play an important role in perpetuating the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. The purpose of this study was to explore the prevalence of household air pollution (HAP) from these sources in homes of someone with TB in a high HIV-prevalence setting. A convenience sample of homes and household members participating in an ongoing active case-finding study in Matlosana district townships surrounding Klerksdorp, South Africa were included. RESULTS: We found a high prevalence of air pollution from SHS, solid fuels, and kerosene among individuals in homes with a case of prevalent active TB disease in Klerksdorp, South Africa. Adults in 40% of homes reported a daily smoker in the home, and 70% of homes had detectable air nicotine. In homes with a history of previous TB (prior to but not including the index case) as compared to those without previous TB, both SHS (83% vs. 65%, respectively) and solid/kerosene fuel use for more than 1 h/day (27% vs. 21%, respectively) were more prevalent. Larger studies are needed to estimate the risk of TB from these types of air pollution in HIV infected individuals and settings with high HIV prevalence.

Tuberculosis remains a global health problem with an enormous burden of disease, estimated at 10.4 million new cases in 2015. To stop the tuberculosis epidemic, it is critical that we interrupt tuberculosis transmission. Further, the interventions required to interrupt tuberculosis transmission must be targeted to high-risk groups and settings. A simple cascade for tuberculosis transmission has been proposed in which (1) a source case of tuberculosis (2) generates infectious particles (3) that survive in the air and (4) are inhaled by a susceptible individual (5) who may become infected and (6) then has the potential to develop tuberculosis. Interventions that target these events will interrupt tuberculosis transmission and accelerate the decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality. The purpose of this article is to provide a high-level overview of what is known about tuberculosis transmission, using the tuberculosis transmission cascade as a framework, and to set the scene for the articles in this series, which address specific aspects of tuberculosis transmission.

High rates of tuberculosis transmission are driving the ongoing global tuberculosis epidemic, and there is a pressing need for research focused on understanding and, ultimately, halting transmission. The ongoing tuberculosis-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coepidemic and rising rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis in parts of the world add further urgency to this work. Success in this research will require a concerted, multidisciplinary effort on the part of tuberculosis scientists, clinicians, programs, and funders and must span the research spectrum from biomedical sciences to the social sciences, public health, epidemiology, cost-effectiveness analyses, and operations research. Heterogeneity of tuberculosis disease, both among individual patients and among communities, poses a substantial challenge to efforts to interrupt transmission. As such, it is likely that effective interventions to stop transmission will require a combination of approaches that will vary across different epidemiologic settings. This research roadmap summarizes key gaps in our current understanding of transmission, as laid out in the preceding articles in this series. We also hope that it will be a call to action for the global tuberculosis community to make a sustained commitment to tuberculosis transmission science. Halting transmission today is an essential step on the path to end tuberculosis tomorrow.

To reduce the incidence of tuberculosis, it is insufficient to simply understand the dynamics of tuberculosis transmission. Rather, we must design and rigorously evaluate interventions to halt transmission, prioritizing those interventions most likely to achieve population-level impact. Synergy in reducing tuberculosis transmission may be attainable by combining interventions that shrink the reservoir of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (preventive therapy), shorten the time between disease onset and treatment initiation (case finding and diagnosis), and prevent transmission in key settings, such as the built environment (infection control). In evaluating efficacy and estimating population-level impact, cluster-randomized trials and mechanistic models play particularly prominent roles. Historical and contemporary evidence suggests that effective public health interventions can halt tuberculosis transmission, but an evidence-based approach based on knowledge of local epidemiology is necessary for success. We provide a roadmap for designing, evaluating, and modeling interventions to interrupt the process of transmission that fuels a diverse array of tuberculosis epidemics worldwide.

In this Perspective on the research article by William Rudgard and colleagues, Priya Shete and coauthor discuss the challenges of measuring the impact of social protection programs such as cash transfers.

SETTING: Seven public tuberculosis (TB) units in Kampala, Uganda, where Uganda's national TB program recently introduced household contact investigation, as recommended by 2012 guidelines from WHO. OBJECTIVE: To apply a cascade analysis to implementation of household contact investigation in a programmatic setting. DESIGN: Prospective, multi-center observational study. METHODS: We constructed a cascade for household contact investigation to describe the proportions of: 1) index patient households recruited; 2) index patient households visited; 3) contacts screened for TB; and 4) contacts completing evaluation for, and diagnosed with, active TB. RESULTS: 338 (33%) of 1022 consecutive index TB patients were eligible for contact investigation. Lay health workers scheduled home visits for 207 (61%) index patients and completed 104 (50%). Among 287 eligible contacts, they screened 256 (89%) for symptoms or risk factors for TB. 131 (51%) had an indication for further TB evaluation. These included 59 (45%) with symptoms alone, 58 (44%) children <5, and 14 (11%) with HIV. Among 131 contacts found to be symptomatic or at risk, 26 (20%) contacts completed evaluation, including five (19%) diagnosed with and treated for active TB, for an overall yield of 1.7%. The cumulative conditional probability of completing the entire cascade was 5%. CONCLUSION: Major opportunities exist for improving the effectiveness and yield of TB contact investigation by increasing the proportion of index households completing screening visits by lay health workers and the proportion of at-risk contacts completing TB evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Substantial individual heterogeneity exists in the clinical manifestations and duration of active tuberculosis. We sought to link the individual-level characteristics of tuberculosis disease to observed population-level outcomes. METHODS: We developed an individual-based, stochastic model of tuberculosis disease in a hypothetical cohort of patients with smear-positive tuberculosis. We conceptualized the disease process as consisting of 2 states-progression and recovery-including transitions between the 2. We then used a Bayesian process to calibrate the model to clinical data from the prechemotherapy era, thus identifying the rates of progression and recovery (and probabilities of transition) consistent with observed population-level clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Observed outcomes are consistent with slow rates of disease progression (median doubling time: 84 days, 95% uncertainty range 62-104) and a low, but nonzero, probability of transition from disease progression to recovery (median 16% per year, 95% uncertainty range 11%-21%). Other individual-level dynamics were less influential in determining observed outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This simplified model identifies individual-level dynamics-including a long doubling time and low probability of immune recovery-that recapitulate population-level clinical outcomes of untreated tuberculosis patients. This framework may facilitate better understanding of the population-level impact of interventions acting at the individual host level.

BACKGROUND: After steady decline since the 1990s, tuberculosis (TB) incidence in New York City (NYC) and the United States (US) has flattened. The reasons for this trend and the implications for the future trajectory of TB in the US remain unclear. METHODS: We developed a compartmental model of TB in NYC, parameterized with detailed epidemiological data. We ran the model under five alternative scenarios representing different explanations for recent declines in TB incidence. We evaluated each scenario's relative likelihood by comparing its output to available data. We used the most likely scenarios to explore drivers of TB incidence and predict future trajectories of the TB epidemic in NYC. FINDINGS: Demographic changes and declining TB transmission alone were insufficient to explain recent trends in NYC TB incidence. Only scenarios that assumed contemporary changes in TB dynamics among the foreign-born - a declining rate of reactivation or a decrease in imported subclinical TB - could accurately describe the trajectory of TB incidence since 2007. In those scenarios, the projected decline in TB incidence from 2015 to 2025 varied from minimal [2·0%/year (95% credible interval 0·4-3·5%)] to similar to 2005 to 2009 trends [4·4%/year (2·5-6·4%)]. The primary factor differentiating optimistic from pessimistic projections was the degree to which improvements in TB dynamics among the foreign-born continued into the coming decade. INTERPRETATION: Further progress against TB in NYC requires additional focus on the foreign-born population. Absent additional intervention in this group, TB incidence may not decline further.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking likely exacerbates comorbidities which people living with HIV (PLWH) are predisposed. We assessed prevalence and correlates of smoking among PLWH in South Africa, which has 7 million PLWH but inadequate reporting of smoking. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among randomly selected adults with HIV infection in Klerksdorp, South Africa. Current smoking was assessed by questionnaire, exhaled carbon monoxide (eCO), and urine cotinine. RESULTS: Of 1210 enrolled adults, 753 (62%) were women. In total, 409 (34%) self-reported ever smoking: 301 (74%) were current and 108 (26%) were former smokers. Using eCO and urine cotinine tests, 239 (52%) men and 100 (13%) women were defined as current smokers. Nearly all smokers (99%) were receiving ART, and had a median (IQR) CD4 count of 333 cells/μL (181-534), viral load of 31 IU/mL (25-4750), and BMI of 21 kg/m2 (19-24). Adjusted analysis among men showed higher odds of smoking with marijuana use (OR = 7.5, 95% CI = 4.1 to 14.6). Among women, 304 (43%) reported using snuff, compared to only 11 (3%) of men, and snuff use was inversely associated with smoking (OR = 0.1; 95% CI = 0.05 to 0.2). A subset of participants (n = 336) was asked about alcohol use, which was positively associated with smoking for men (OR = 8.1, 95% CI = 2.8 to 25.9) and women (OR = 8.5, 95% CI = 2.9 to 26.8). CONCLUSION: Smoking prevalence among PLWH in South Africa is alarmingly high. Prevention and cessation strategies that consider marijuana and alcohol use are needed. IMPLICATIONS: As long-term HIV care continues to improve, more people living with HIV (PLWH) will die of diseases, including tuberculosis, for which smoking plays an important causal role. The prevalence of smoking is markedly higher among PLWH in high-resource settings, but data for Africa and other low-resource settings that shoulder the brunt of the HIV epidemic has previously not been well documented. We report an alarmingly high prevalence of smoking among PLWH in South Africa, particularly among men, and a strong association between current smoking and use of other substances.

BACKGROUND: We describe the effectiveness of an innovative community-based social mobilization approach called Care Groups to improve the effectiveness of the national tuberculosis (TB) program by increasing TB testing and improving treatment outcomes in six districts of rural Mozambique. METHODS: The Care Group approach, which was implemented in a population of 218 191, enabled a facilitator to meet every 6 months with 10-12 community health volunteers (forming a Care Group) to share key TB messages and then for them to convey these messages over the subsequent 6 months to 10-12 households. Three household surveys were performed over 5 years to measure population-level changes in knowledge and behaviors. Data from village TB, laboratory, and district registers were also used to monitor activities and outcomes. RESULTS: There were substantial improvements in TB-related knowledge and behaviors in the number of patients initiating treatment, in the percentage of patients receiving directly observed treatment, in treatment success, and in TB-related mortality. CONCLUSION: Care Groups are uniquely suited to address some of the challenges of TB control. This project sheds light on a new strategy for engaging communities to address not only TB, but other health priorities as well.

BACKGROUND: HIV-infected individuals have increased risk of developing obstructive lung disease (OLD). Studies from developed countries report high viral load, low CD4 counts, and anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to be associated with OLD; but these findings may not be generalizable to populations in resource-limited settings. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of lung function in 730 HIV-infected black South African adults. Pre-bronchodilator spirometry was performed at enrollment and repeated annually for three years. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with OLD, defined as FEV1/FVC<0.70, at enrollment. Excess annual declines in FEV1 and FVC were modelled as the product-term of follow-up time and exposures using random effects regression. RESULTS: Median (IQR) age at enrollment was 36 (32-41) years, 85% were female and 30% ever-smoked with a median (IQR) exposure of 3 (1-6) pack-years. Median (IQR) CD4 count and viral load at enrollment were 372 (261-518) cells/mm3 and 2655 (91-13,548) copies/mL respectively. Overall, 25% were receiving ART at enrollment, 16% of whom reported at least 6 months of ART receipt. OLD was found in 35 (5%) at enrollment. Increasing age (aOR = 2.08 per 10-years [95%CI 1.22-3.57], p = 0.007), current smoking (aOR = 3.55 [95%CI 1.20-10.53], p = 0.02), and CRP (aOR = 1.01 per unit-increase [95%CI 1.00-1.03], p = 0.04) were significantly associated with OLD at enrollment; while increasing CD4 count (aOR = 1.02 per-100 cells/mm3 [95%CI 0.85-1.22], p = 0.82), viral load (aOR = 0.67 per log-increase [95%CI 0.43-1.10], p = 0.12) and receipt of ART (aOR = 0.57 [95%CI 0.18-1.75], p = 0.32) were not. The median (IQR) follow-up time was 18 (12-24) months. Participants with a history of tuberculosis (TB) had a 35 mL (95%CI 2-68, p = 0.03) and 57 mL (95%CI 19-96, p = 0.003) per year excess loss of FEV1 and FVC respectively. CONCLUSION: Prevalent OLD was associated with older age, current smoking and higher CRP levels, but not CD4 counts and ART, in HIV-infected South African adults. Better understanding of the long-term effects of TB, smoking and inflammation on lung function in HIV-infected populations is urgently needed.

BACKGROUND: Symptom-based screening for tuberculosis is recommended for all people living with HIV. This recommendation results in unnecessary Xpert MTB/RIF testing in many individuals living in tuberculosis-endemic areas and thus poor implementation of intensified case finding and tuberculosis preventive therapy. Novel approaches to tuberculosis screening are needed to help achieve global targets for tuberculosis elimination. We assessed the performance of C-reactive protein (CRP) measured with a point-of-care assay as a screening tool for active pulmonary tuberculosis. METHODS: For this prospective study, we enrolled adults (aged ≥18 years) living with HIV with CD4 cell count less than or equal to 350 cells per μL who were initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) from two HIV/AIDS clinics in Uganda. CRP concentrations were measured at study entry with a point-of-care assay using whole blood obtained by fingerprick (concentration ≥10 mg/L defined as screen positive for tuberculosis). Sputum samples were collected for Xpert MTB/RIF testing and culture. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of point-of-care CRP and WHO symptom-based screening in reference to culture results. We repeated the sensitivity analysis with Xpert MTB/RIF as the reference standard. FINDINGS: Between July 8, 2013, and Dec 15, 2015, 1237 HIV-infected adults were enrolled and underwent point-of-care CRP testing. 60 (5%) patients with incomplete or contaminated cultures were excluded from the analysis. Of the remaining 1177 patients (median CD4 count 165 cells per μL [IQR 75-271]), 163 (14%) had culture-confirmed tuberculosis. Point-of-care CRP testing had 89% sensitivity (145 of 163, 95% CI 83-93) and 72% specificity (731 of 1014, 95% CI 69-75) for culture-confirmed tuberculosis. Compared with WHO symptom-based screening, point-of-care CRP testing had lower sensitivity (difference -7%, 95% CI -12 to -2; p=0·002) but substantially higher specificity (difference 58%, 95% CI 55 to 61; p<0·0001). When Xpert MTB/RIF results were used as the reference standard, sensitivity of point-of-care CRP and WHO symptom-based screening were similar (94% [79 of 84] vs 99% [83 of 84], respectively; difference -5%, 95% CI -12 to 2; p=0·10). INTERPRETATION: The performance characteristics of CRP support its use as a tuberculosis screening test for people living with HIV with CD4 count less than or equal to 350 cells per μL who are initiating ART. HIV/AIDS programmes should consider point-of-care CRP-based tuberculosis screening to improve the efficiency of intensified case finding and increase uptake of tuberculosis preventive therapy. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health; President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief; University of California, San Francisco, Nina Ireland Program for Lung Health.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the close link between tuberculosis (TB) and poverty, most mathematical models of TB have not addressed underlying social and structural determinants. OBJECTIVE: To review studies employing mathematical modelling to evaluate the epidemiological impact of the structural determinants of TB. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and personal libraries to identify eligible articles. We extracted data on the modelling techniques employed, research question, types of structural determinants modelled and setting. RESULTS: From 232 records identified, we included eight articles published between 2008 and 2015; six employed population-based dynamic TB transmission models and two non-dynamic analytic models. Seven studies focused on proximal TB determinants (four on nutritional status, one on wealth, one on indoor air pollution, and one examined overcrowding, socio-economic and nutritional status), and one focused on macro-economic influences. CONCLUSIONS: Few modelling studies have attempted to evaluate structural determinants of TB, resulting in key knowledge gaps. Despite the challenges of modelling such a complex system, models must broaden their scope to remain useful for policy making. Given the intersectoral nature of the interrelations between structural determinants and TB outcomes, this work will require multidisciplinary collaborations. A useful starting point would be to focus on developing relatively simple models that can strengthen our knowledge regarding the potential effect of the structural determinants on TB outcomes.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178170.].