Shown in the figure are projected 10-year reductions in TB incidence, covering a period between 2016-2025, in each of the states under increased targeted testing and treatment (TTT) of different key populations, using state-level TB transmission models. (Please refer to † for details.) Reductions are shown as percentage of the projected baseline TB incidence modeled in the absence of any additional intervention. In each state, the model assumes 50% coverage among all non-U.S.-born adults; 80% coverage among all diabetic population; and includes the entire population of HIV+, incarcerated, and homeless. For the intervention covering all the above populations, the model assumes coverage of all of the above populations, at the specified level for each group. The impact for the intervention covering all the above populations does not equal the sum of the impact of the five individual populations largely because individuals with more than one risk factor only receive the intervention once.
† Shrestha, S, Cherng, S, Hill, AN, Reynolds, S, Flood, J, Barry, PM, Readhead, A, Oxtoby, M, Lauzardo, M, Privett, T, Marks, SM, Dowdy, DW. Impact and Effectiveness of State-level Tuberculosis interventions in California, Florida, New York and Texas: A model-based analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology, in press.